By Vincent Stanton, Jr.
The real estate developer focus group convened by Office of Planning and Building Director Chris Ryan in early-mid 2025 provided important, if disappointing, feedback on the economic feasibility of building in Belmont Center (see “Developer perspectives: condensed and edited transcript”). The transcript of that meeting is full of daunting assessments of the current market for commercial real estate.
- 20% to 30% vacancy rates for office space in Boston and Cambridge. (In January 2026, subsequent to the focus group, OZK Bank wrote off $72 million of its investment in renovated office space in the former Sullivan Courthouse at 40 Thorndike Street, East Cambridge.)
- About 70% of retail space in the Boston area is being leased to food and beverage establishments, a “low-margin business” that nonetheless requires significant build-out costs which often have to be absorbed by the developer, and with frequent failures, making restaurants a comparatively unappealing use for developers.
- There seemed to be almost no appetite for two floors of commercial space below residential. One floor was deemed the maximum by all but one of the developers who spoke to that question.
… and all of that pessimistic input came before the scale of allowable development was reduced in the fall in response to resident feedback.
Some of the sentiments of the focus group are echoed by Belmont Center landlord Scott Tellier, owner of 375 and 385 Concord Avenue. He expressed no enthusiasm for a hotel, instead preferring that the range of allowed uses in Belmont Center be extended to Concord Avenue. Kevin Foley, the largest Belmont Center landlord, is concerned that the proposed zoning does not address the parking needed to keep Belmont Center businesses healthy (see Tellier and Foley’s comments in “Belmont Center Landlord Perspectives”).
Echoing those concerns, it is hard not to think of Cushing Corner as a disappointing precedent. In 2006, Town Meeting passed the Cushing Square Overlay district with many of the same aspirations as have motivated the present Belmont Center project. In that case, adding 115 apartments and 37,000 square feet of commercial space at the corner of Common and Trapelo was expected to revitalize all of Cushing Square (see “Cushing Square: What Did We Learn?”, June/July 2020 BCF Newsletter). To be fair, a lawsuit over the division of rents from the commercial space held up leasing for seven years. However, that lawsuit was settled out of court in December 2024, and 14 months later, the space is still empty.
The newsletter contacted Jeff Arsenault of Charter Realty, the company hired to market the retail space (see their brochure here) by new owners Zelco Properties and AGW Partners. On a positive note, Arsenault said that he was in active conversations with multiple possible tenants, that he expected to announce a boutique fitness center some time in the next three months, and to have most of the space leased by the end of the summer.
In contrast to the pessimism about commercial development, one focus group developer said “residential is one area where we can all, I think, agree that Belmont has incredible strength.” Other developers suggested that Belmont “lead” with residential development to build the population density necessary to make commercial development more attractive.
So, if Town Meeting passes the two zoning overlays, will anything get built? It is hard to be optimistic in the current real estate climate. Of course, if Belmont Center is rezoned, developers will have decades to assess and reassess possible projects. The current environment will pass, and perhaps projects compatible with the proposed zoning will become attractive in the future.
Links
Link to full transcript of Chris Ryan developer focus group:
https://www.belmont-ma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/10781/Focus-Group—No-ID
“Cushing Square: What Did We Learn? June-July 2020 BCF Newsletter:
https://www.belmontcitizensforum.org/2020/06/30/cushing-square-what-did-we-learn/
Toll Brothers Apartment Living sells retail space in The Bradford (37,000 square feet classified as retail condominium) to Zelco Properties and AGW Partners in October 2025
Charter Realty leasing brochure for the commercial space in The Bradford:
https://charterrealty.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Belmont-90-Trapelo-Rd_01-23-26.pdf
OZK Bank writes off $72 million of its investment in converting former Edward Sulllivan Courthouse in East Cambridge to office space:
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